[09.10.09]
Crude Oil returns to challenge $72 after larger supply reduction, IEA forecast, and weaker dollar, yet still ignoring ample supplies and the weak economy, while Natural Gas continues strong technical rebound after favorable EIA update. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, this market was obviously still searching for a bottom and that all technical indicators were still deeply oversold with the spot price now targeting $2.40 and possibly $2.36 before the shorts got anxious and began making their exit to lock in recent gains and value seeking longs begin entering the market to secure a vantage point.
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[09.03.09]
Crude Oil hovers at $68 awaiting key unemployment data tomorrow, stubbornly overvalued ignoring ample supplies and the weak economy, while Natural Gas settles at new lows for the year following EIA update.
Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead although the new October spot was still grossly oversold, with the futures holding a hefty premium above it’s predecessor September that expired above $2.80, with the new spot trading almost $.40 cents higher, the risk was still substantial that the October would drift deeper into oversold territory before a key bullish reversal transpired.
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[08.27.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back above $72 blindly following stocks chasing the ghost of an Economic recovery Magically somehow without the Consumer, while Natural Gas reflects more the reality of Weak Industrial Demand, a cool summer and quiet tropics yielding the lowest expiration price of the year. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said under the current technical scenario looking ahead that I anticipated $2.80 to represent a short-term bottom, and since then the market did manage to penetrate this low intraday to the surprise of many market players, however never closed below this key support despite hitting $2.69 earlier in the session. Even at today’s expiration the September delivery short-covered back above $2.80 into the close as the sellers were forced to buy back to exit and avoid taking delivery along with some selling from disappointed previous buyers that expected higher prices by now.
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[08.20.09]
Crude Oil hovers near resistance at top of the range after sharp rebound following Large Supply reduction yet ignoring the weak Consumer demand outlook, while Natural Gas slumps to new 7 year lows despite lower than expected injection and is now grossly oversold. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario looking ahead with the market at new yearly lows for the spot contract that most indicators were now in oversold territory and yet the market was still in a weakened state searching for a bottom. This was confirmed as the market actually made new contract lows and yet exceeded my expectations by breaking and closing below the $3 benchmark which would normally appear to be a very bearish development, however, now the market is so grossly oversold with the upside potential far outweighing the room for further downside that a short-covering rally is eminent.
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[08.13.09]
Crude Oil remains on barrowed time ignoring ample supplies and poor demand while depending on stocks defying gravity and a weaker dollar in a desperate attempt to retain artificial value, while Natural Gas succumbs to it’s reality of heavy supply and storm disappointment. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario would test support at $3.56 scaled down to $3.40 before value based buyers may step in. I also said upside resistance over the near term at $3.80 with the more critical level at $3.92 were likely to contain rally attempts sending the market down to test the lower end of the range before a more sustained rally can be initiated. But more importantly and specifically I said the market’s behavior of expanding both ends of the trading range was rather reliable when looking at recent pattern history and so given that the upside range had already been extended the odds favor the market to test lower end of the trading range to expand the downside which is exactly what transpired with today closing at new yearly lows for the spot September futures and close to the continuation low of $3.22.
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[08.06.09]
Crude Oil hovers near the year’s highs as the market extends the value charade for another reality defying rally based on the premature call for increased demand from future economic recovery, while Natural Gas drops after larger weekly supply and storm downgrade. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario would test support over the near term at $3.46, which held as values only managed to decline down to $3.56 since then and yet confirmed my upside targets by exceeding $3.92 climbing all the way to an intraday peak at $4.16 before pulling back sharply. After today’s price collapse technical indicators are now mostly negative with stochastics pointing South along with momentum relative strength and other oscillators suggesting more downside action ahead.
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[07.30.09]
Crude Oil recovers to challenge $67 after yesterday’s collapse in sympathy with stocks and precarious assumption for future economic rebound, while Natural Gas rebounds after weekly lows and EIA report. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical decline had put a temporary ceiling at $3.80 to contain rebound attempts with spot August targeting $3.40 heading into expiration with the new September spot challenging $3.60 commensurately, both of which transpired yesterday.
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[07.16.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back up to challenge the $62 level on technical concerns and a weaker dollar despite the EIA report, while Natural Gas stages dramatic short-covering rally from technical lows. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, technical indicators had now resulted in a massive attraction of new shorts that traditionally precedes a sharp and dramatic bullish reversal. I also said if you follow the past price pattern of this market and when you add to this the quickly dissolving profit potential of the short-side when considering the continuation chart low at $3.26 was now within reach, in contrast with the growing risk of violent short-covering as the immense potential for gains on the rally looms larger, that looking ahead this technical scenario gave me high confidence in the final attempt to test the year’s lows would transpire within the next 3-5 sessions, if the existing lows were not already in place.
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[07.09.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back up to challenge the $62 level on technical concerns and a weaker dollar despite the EIA report, while Natural Gas stages dramatic short-covering rally from technical lows. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, technical indicators had now resulted in a massive attraction of new shorts that traditionally precedes a sharp and dramatic bullish reversal. I also said if you follow the past price pattern of this market and when you add to this the quickly dissolving profit potential of the short-side when considering the continuation chart low at $3.26 was now within reach, in contrast with the growing risk of violent short-covering as the immense potential for gains on the rally looms larger, that looking ahead this technical scenario gave me high confidence in the final attempt to test the year’s lows would transpire within the next 3-5 sessions, if the existing lows were not already in place.
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[06.25.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back above $70 on Nigerian Pipeline disruption and weak Dollar concerns as Iran volatility subsides, while suspending disbelief in the US economic meltdown still in progress, while Natural Gas recovers from short covering from technical support on lighter injection. Technical Outlook: Since our last report I said looking ahead, technical indicators overall have turned negative once again after the steep and volatile advance and values became grossly short-term overbought with the market now targeting lower support at $3.92 and then the more critical pivot price at $3.80 that will likely result in a rapid washout back to the weekly low at $3.65. Since then, that is almost exactly what transpired as prices took out both my initial targets and traded as low as $3.71 intraday yesterday, only $.6 cents from my lowest downside objective at $3.65 before recovering back up into the mid-range over the last 2 sessions.
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[06.18.09]
Crude Oil remains range-bound after retreating from my targeted resistance at $72.50 on Economic optimism and Iran’s instability yet still ignoring real supply demand, while Natural Gas slumps from advance fatigue and heavy injection. Technical Outlook: Since our last report I said looking ahead, the market was still in a bearish technical pattern that should find values falling back and possibly retest the week’s lows and even lower, however, I also said the time in the cycle was short in my opinion and if prices didn’t fall back below $3.70 again within the next 3-5 sessions, that I anticipated the market would ascend back over $4.0 soon and test $4.25 near within the same time frame.
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[06.08.09] - Wall Street Journal
In Rising Crude Prices, Some See '08 Replay.
The rapid rise in the price of crude-oil futures, which touched $70 on Friday, is sparking fears of a repeat of last year's energy rollercoaster. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday hit $70.32 before closing down 37 cents at $68.44. Prices remain well below what they were a year ago, when oil was selling for more than $125 a barrel, but the climb in recent months has been even steeper than last year's.
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